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Executive Summary
In November 2024, the Bay Area real estate market across five counties showed signs of cooling, with slight declines in price per square foot and list prices across all property types, while days on market increased. However, single-family homes saw a modest rise in sale prices, highlighting sustained demand for premium properties despite cautious buyer behavior.
Outlook for December 2024:Â Buyers can expect increased negotiating power, especially for townhouses and condos, as sellers may offer competitive pricing to close before year-end. Investors should monitor these trends, focusing on properties with price adjustments and extended days on market for potential value opportunities.
KEY TAKE AWAYS...
SALES PRICES? Single-Family Homes:Â Sale prices increased by 4.36% in November, driven by demand for high-quality properties despite broader market cooling. Townhouses & Condos:Â Both segments experienced slight declines in sale prices (-2.28% for townhouses and -2.51% for condos), reflecting buyer caution and market adjustment.
SALES VOLUME? Overall, sales volume showed signs of decline, with longer days on market across all property types. This indicates slower market activity as higher interest rates impact affordability.
MORTGAGE RATES? Rising rates are putting downward pressure on prices in segments with lower demand (e.g., condos and townhouses).
Is now a good time to sell or buy?
Check out two of my blogs for how to sell your home in a high interest rate environment and 6 key questions to ask when selling your home in 2024.
Off Market Properties:
San Mateo (Aragon)Â (2,870 sqft) - 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 2-car garage
San Mateo (4 PLEX) - Two 1 bed, two studios
Santa Cruz (East) - (2,100 sqft) 3 bed, 2 bath + ADU + 1-car garage on oversized lot
San Francisco (Candlestick Point) - (800 sqft) 1 bed, 1 bath, condo
....
Want the full list? Send a text to 650.451.8763
Table of Contents:
How Are The San Francisco Bay Area Real Estate Markets?
In November 2024, the SF Bay Area real estate market trends softened slightly, with declining price per square foot, lower list prices, and increased days on market across most property types, while single-family homes maintained strong sale prices due to sustained demand.
The below graphics show all five counties' and the *Mid-Peninsula's pending sales organized by home types and price levels. The price tiers under each home type that saw the highest volume of pending sales per county are highlighted in yellow, e.g. Alameda county sells the most condos at price points less than $800K, single family homes and townhouses between $800K to $1.3M. The color coding or heat map shows the changes in comparison to the prior month. Those that positively affect sales prices are highlighted in green, those that negatively affect are highlighted in red.
*Mid-Peninsula = Atherton, Belmont, Burlingame, Foster City, Hillsborough, Menlo Park, Palo Alto, Portola Valley, Redwood City, Redwood Shores, San Carlos, San Mateo, and Woodside.
SF Bay Area Real Estate Trends - Month over Month (MoM)
The charts below are month-by-month (and now year-over-year) heat maps of pricing in the SF Bay Area. They are grouped by county and property type (Condo, Single Family Home, Townhouse). The metrics are Price Per Square Foot, Days On Market, how many sold, and the List To Sales Price Ratio.
Green highlighted cells indicate items keeping prices up in comparison to previous month's metrics.
Red highlighted cells indicate the opposite, i.e downward pressure on sales price which favor Buyers more.
(Click on each county's data to make larger). Make county / location bigger to see the MoM data better.
BONUS - We are now incorporating year over year comparative months as well, e.g. October 2024 versus October 2023.
SF Bay Area Real Estate Trends - Year over Year (YoY)
Here's the data to support the year over year price growth (supply versus demand) we are currently experiencing.
Inventory - 20 Years vs. 10 Years
Every year we see active and sold inventory go up then down, a predictable cadence. How high or low is dependent on the next metric, Months of Inventory or the rate of change in inventory being sold.
We are above historically low inventory levels; active inventory is now exceeding 2023 levels.
The graphs below show both a 20-year and 10-year time horizon for both single family homes and condos that are on the market (active) or sold.
Months of Inventory - 20 Years vs. 10 Years
This metric tells us how hot the markets are currently, i.e. the rate of change. If no new listings were added, this metric tells us how long it would take to sell all the remaining active homes. Five to six months is considered a buyer's market, three to six is a neutral market, and anything less than three is a seller's market. In the last 10 years, we have been in a Seller's Market except for condos in the year of 2020, when the COVID Pandemic hit.
% Over Asking vs. DOM - 12 Months Look Back
How much over asking a home sold for and how fast it was sold, i.e. Days On Market are the next two Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). These show how much demand there is for SF Bay Area single family homes and condos.
Sales price to list price peaked in April 2024 for single family homes and condos while days on market bottomed in May at 16 days and have been increasing. Despite these latest trends, the average days on market are below 30 days and sales prices going over asking clearly indicate a strong seller's market.
Sales Price - 20 Years vs. 10 Years
In general, single family home prices have doubled every 10 years in the SF Bay Area since the 1980s. Due to the strength of the SF Bay Area economy, we anticipate these values to remain high, especially as inventory levels are still near historic lows and our geographical constraints on building more homes.
However, condos sales prices have been increasing less over the last few years as most home owners are wanting more space and less fees.
Please reach out to schedule your free consultation to discuss your home price or home search.
Mortgage Rates, The Stock Market, And More.
Inflation: December 11th we'll get the next read. From October's numbers: "The annual inflation rate for the United States was 2.6% for the 12 months ending October, compared to the previous rate increase of 2.4%." (US Inflation Calculator)
Employment: Strong hiring at large employers led this month's growth with private sector employment adding 146,000 jobs in November and annual pay was up 4.8% year-over-year (ADP National Employment). SF Bay Area unemployment peaked in August, but has since come down to 4.4%.
FED rate: Lowered 25bps in November after a 50bps cut in September. The CME Group is predicting a 74% chance that the FED LOWERS interest rates again at their December 18th, 2024 meeting.
10 Year Treasury rate: Considered a marker for investor confidence in the U.S. economy and closely correlated to mortgage rates. November saw an increase until November 21st, where it has now been on the decrease every day since.
Mortgage rates: October saw 30-year fixed mortgage rates shoot up 83bps to 7.09% due to the fear of inflation returning and uncertainty of the November elections. November took some time for fears to subside but now has been on the decline, similar to the 10 Year Treasury rate, hovering around 6.92%.
At KPeterson.realty, we know not every lender is created equal and we work with lenders who's rates today are around 5% for 10/6 ARMS. Our lenders also may value your RSUs better than others. Reach out and tap into our network.
Stock market: The S&P500 and most tech stocks are up over 20% year to date.
When will the next Recession occur? Check out my infographics in this blog post for a brief primer. Then we can discuss over our next coffee.
How We Help Our Buyers
We work with the best lenders who are able to beat the current interest rates.
Search For Homes by customizing your financial situation before contacting a lender to determine what you can afford.
Investing or not sure which areas to look in? Explore Markets to generate reports that analyze a city by days on market, average home price, price per square foot, average number of bedrooms / bathrooms / square feet in YOUR price point.
How We Help Our Sellers
We have a $0 down / 0% renovation program in which you don't need to pay back for one year, giving you flexibility on when to sell. The goal is for every $1 spent on renovations to net (on average) a $2 to $4 return on investment. Every family has a unique real estate scenario based on their needs and circumstances. Feel free to schedule a consultation with me today.
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