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Executive Summary: Five SF Bay Area Counties Proprietary Market Analysis
In January 2025, the SF Bay Area housing market experienced a 50.9% decrease in inventory from the previous month in San Francisco, with other counties reaching their lowest levels in 12 months, resulting in a robust sellers' market. Although a decline in sales prices from month-to-month is typical due to the seasonal sales cycle, sales prices rose year-over-year by up to 16% in Santa Clara County, highlighting the strength and resilience of the SF Bay Area housing market.
Outlook for February 2025: Unemployment is expected to rise slightly to 5.6%, which could affect consumer confidence, while inflation and higher borrowing costs have further tightened market conditions. Despite these factors, the market remains competitive with high demand and low supply.
County | Median Home Price | MoM Change | YoY Change | Average DOM |
San Mateo | $1.75M | -8% | +6% | 38 days |
San Francisco | $1.38M | -6% | +3.5% | 39 days |
Santa Clara | $1.75M | -3% | +16% | 27 days |
Contra Costa | $790K | -1% | +1% | 39 days |
Alameda | $1.1M | -3.5% | -2.4% | 36 days |
Sale Price | Average Days On Market | Percentage of Listings Sold Over Asking |
$800K-$1.3M | 68 | 50 |
$1.3M-$1.8M | 59 | 54 |
$1.8M-$2.3M | 52 | 51 |
$2.3M-$2.8M | 63 | 47 |
$2.8M-$3.3M | 58 | 35 |
$3.3M-$3.8M | 88 | 34 |
$3.8M-$4.3M | 46 | 47 |
$4.3M-$4.8M | 62 | 40 |
Table of Contents:
SF Bay Area Real Estate Price Trends
KPeterson.realty Proprietary Heat Maps
Track how prices are trending month-over-month and year-over-year.
Pricing Month-over-Month (December to January)
The median sale price declined 2.5% from December 2024 to January 2025.
These month-over-month declines align with typical seasonal patterns in the housing market, where prices often dip during the winter months before rising in the spring and summer.
Pricing Year-over-Year (January 2024 to January 2025)
Prices across counties rose between 2.1% (SF) and 15.6% (Santa Clara) for an average of 7.3% year-over-year.
This shows that homes are still getting more expensive over time.
List-to-Sale Price Ratio
The data from January 2025 indicates that homes in these counties were sold at prices near or slightly under their listing prices, implying a more balanced market compared to December 2024.
The charts below are month-over-month and year-over-year heat maps of pricing in the SF Bay Area. They are grouped by county and property type (Condo, Single Family Home, Townhouse). The metrics are Price per Square Foot, Days on Market, how many sold, and the List to Sales Price Ratio.
Green highlighted cells indicate items keeping prices up in comparison to previous month's metrics.
Red highlighted cells indicate the opposite, i.e downward pressure on sales price which favor buyers more.
Enlarge each county Heat Map by clicking on each of the images.
20-Year vs. 10-Year Appreciation
SF Bay Area Inventory Metrics
Active Listings
The overall number of homes available on the market. An increased inventory combined with a slower selling rate typically benefits buyers, whereas decreased inventory and a faster selling rate usually benefit sellers.
Month-over-Month Inventory Levels
Inventory levels across the Bay Area decreased compared to the previous month, with a notable reduction in San Francisco. In fact, total inventory in San Francisco fell by 50.9% from December 2024 to January 2025, hitting a record low. This trend was observed across other counties as well, with sales continuing to outpace new listings, leading to a further reduction in available homes.
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
Inventory levels for the third year in a row hit historic lows.
20-Year vs. 10-Year Inventory Levels
Every year we see active and sold inventory go up then down, a predictable cadence. How high or low is dependent on the next metric, Months of Inventory or the rate of change in inventory being sold.
In 2024, we saw historically low inventory levels (below 2,300 active single family home listings across the five counties); active inventory has now rebounded above 3,000 active listings.
The graphs below show both a 20-year and 10-year time horizon for both single family homes and condos that are on the market (active) versus sold.
Months of Supply
Demand Indicators
% Over Asking vs. DOM (12-Month Look Back)
How much over asking a home sold for and how fast it was sold, i.e. Days On Market are the next two Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). These show how much demand there is for SF Bay Area single family homes and condos.
Days On Market measures how long it takes for homes to sell.
Buyers: Longer DOM gives more room for negotiation.
Sellers: Shorter DOM indicates strong interest.
January saw the highest Days on Market in the last 12 months while the Sales Price to List Price Ratio dropped to the lowest for single family homes at 103.5% and condos bounced back up to 99% of asking.
Sales Price to List Price Ratio peaked in April 2024 for single family homes and condos while Days on Market bottomed in May at 16 days for single family homes and 32 days for condos.
Pending Sales
Macroeconomics
Mortgage Rates
Month-over-Month Change
Rates peaked around 7.2% in early January after rising through the entire month of December.
Driving Factors: The Federal Reserves paused rate cuts, a cautious approach to elevated inflation and mixed reports (e.g. strong labor markets).
Year-over-Year Change
Rates increased from 6.2% (Jan 2024) to 7.02% (Jan 2025), indicating a 0.82% year-over-year increase.
10-Year Treasury
Stock Market (Performance in January 2025)
FED (Federal Reserve)
Inflation
Employment
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