February 2025: Real Estate Trends in the SF Bay Area from San Mateo's Top Realtors
- Kevin Peterson
- Feb 10
- 10 min read
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Executive Summary: Five SF Bay Area Counties Proprietary Market Analysis
The February 2025 market showed a mixture of seller’s markets (in San Mateo and Santa Clara) and neutral conditions (in Alameda and Contra Costa), with decreasing mortgage rates making now a potentially great time for buyers.
Sellers, especially in San Mateo and Santa Clara, can expect high demand, with homes selling quickly and potentially at above asking prices. The recent dip in the stock market due to uncertainty around the Trump tariffs is also causing some to want to transition into real estate versus more stock fluctuations.
If you’re a buyer in search of a single-family home, you may need to act fast in high-demand areas. If you’re focused on condos, there may be more negotiating room as these properties spend slightly more time on the market.
Outlook for March 2025:
The San Francisco Bay Area real estate market is expected to remain strong in March, but rates and global economic factors (e.g., tariffs) will likely have a moderating effect. Here’s a breakdown of what buyers and sellers should expect:
For Buyers: If you’re in the mid-range market (i.e., homes priced $800K-$2.8M), you’ll find more options as inventory increases. If you’re looking in luxury markets, proceed with caution, as stock market volatility could impact the high-end homebuyer’s purchasing power.
For Sellers: High-demand areas like San Mateo and Santa Clara counties will continue to see strong buyer activity, especially for homes below $2.8M. Luxury sellers may face some slowdown if stock market volatility continues. However, the potential for increased construction costs from tariffs could push new home prices higher, benefitting sellers in the new construction market.
While the market may experience slight fluctuations, the underlying strength of the Bay Area economy and continued demand in key areas should sustain a competitive real estate market in the 2025 Spring market.
Table of Contents:
SF Bay Area Real Estate Price Trends
KPeterson.realty Proprietary Heat Maps
Track how prices are trending month-over-month and year-over-year.
Pricing Month-over-Month (January to February)
Month-over-month, home prices continued their upward trajectory, especially in San Mateo and Santa Clara counties, with single-family homes seeing the most notable increases. Condos showed more moderate increases or slight decreases, particularly in San Francisco county.
Pricing Year-over-Year (February 2024 to February 2025)
Year-over-Year price increases in San Mateo and Santa Clara counties saw solid appreciation of 8-9%, while San Francisco experienced slower growth in both single-family homes and condos. Prices in Alameda and Contra Costa counties were also steady, showing moderate growth.
List-to-Sale Price Ratio
San Mateo and Santa Clara counties continue to experience a strong seller’s market, with List-to-Ask Ratios exceeding 106%. Sellers in these areas are benefiting from high demand and competitive bidding.
In contrast, San Francisco and Contra Costa counties are seeing moderate market conditions, especially in the condo sector. In Contra Costa, homes are generally selling at or near the asking price, but not necessarily above it, reflecting more neutral conditions.
Alameda County is in a balanced market, similar to Contra Costa. Homes here are typically selling close to the list price, with minimal fluctuations, indicating a more stable market overall.
The charts below are month-over-month and year-over-year heat maps of pricing in the SF Bay Area. They are grouped by county and property type (Condo, Single Family Home, Townhouse). The metrics are Price per Square Foot, Days on Market, how many sold, and the List to Sales Price Ratio.
Green highlighted cells indicate items keeping prices up in comparison to previous month's metrics.
Red highlighted cells indicate the opposite, i.e downward pressure on sales price which favor buyers more.
Enlarge each county Heat Map by clicking on each of the images.
20-Year vs. 10-Year Appreciation
SF Bay Area Inventory Metrics
Active Listings
The overall number of homes available on the market. An increased inventory combined with a slower selling rate typically benefits buyers, whereas decreased inventory and a faster selling rate usually benefit sellers.
Inventory Levels
Active Inventory Changes:
San Francisco County: Active listings increased by 2.5% from January to February 2025, reaching 1,291 homes for sale.
East Bay (Alameda and Contra Costa Counties): The East Bay experienced a 26.39% rise in active listings, with new single-family home listings increasing by 21.59%.
Silicon Valley (Santa Clara County): Silicon Valley's condo market stood out with a 36.62% rise in active listings and a 45.2% increase in new condo listings, indicating potential buying opportunities.
Mid-Peninsula (San Mateo County): San Mateo county saw a 9.0% increase in active listings compared to January 2025, with 121 homes for sale in February.
20-Year vs. 10-Year Inventory Levels
Every year we see active and sold inventory go up then down, a predictable cadence. How high or low is dependent on the next metric, Months of Inventory or the rate of change in inventory being sold.
In 2024, we saw historically low inventory levels (below 2,300 active single family home listings across the five counties); active inventory has now rebounded above 4,000 active listings. If this trend continues, there could be some downward pressure on sales prices due to the amount of supply being on. the market.
The graphs below show both a 20-year and 10-year time horizon for both single family homes and condos that are on the market (active) versus sold.
Months of Supply
Demand Indicators
% Over Asking vs. DOM (12-Month Look Back)
How much over asking a home sold for and how fast it was sold, i.e. Days On Market are the next two Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). These show how much demand there is for SF Bay Area single family homes and condos.
Days On Market measures how long it takes for homes to sell.
Buyers: Longer DOM gives more room for negotiation.
Sellers: Shorter DOM indicates strong interest.
February saw the first decline in 3 months to the Days on Market while the Sales Price to List Price Ratio shot up for single family homes at 107% and condos bounced back up to 101% of asking.
Pending Sales
Macroeconomics
Mortgage Rates
Month-over-Month Change:
From January to February 2025, the mortgage rate decreased from 7.07% to 6.72%, a 35 basis point drop. This reflects a slight easing in borrowing costs due to moderating inflation, a more cautious Fed, strong employment data, and global market conditions influencing bond yields. While still higher than historical lows, this decrease could boost activity in the real estate market, especially for buyers in the $800K-$2.8M range. However, if inflation rises or the Fed takes a more aggressive stance, rates may climb again.
Year-over-Year Change:
February 2025 saw a 7.78% increase in purchase applications and a 39.02% rise in refinance applications, signaling a strong surge in refinancing activity.
10-Year Treasury
Stock Market (Performance in February 2025)
FED (Federal Reserve)
Inflation
Employment
Working in the SF Bay Area
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