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SF Bay Area Real Estate Trends - Help Us Spread The Word
Executive Summary: Five SF Bay Area Counties Proprietary Market Analysis
December is traditionally a slower time for the housing market. Here’s why:
Fewer homes are listed for sale because of the holidays.
Buyers and sellers often wait until January to make moves.
Homes that are on the market may take a bit longer to sell.
Prices tend to dip slightly but remain stable overall.
Outlook for January 2025: Buyers can anticipate greater negotiating leverage, particularly for townhouses and condos, as sellers have been holding off on selling since the holiday season. Investors should keep an eye on these trends, concentrating on properties with price changes and longer market durations for potential value opportunities.
Key Takeaways by County
County | Median Home Price | MoM Change | YoY Change | Average DOM | Inventory Change (MoM) |
San Mateo | $1.84M | -2% | +6% | 35 days | -18% |
San Francisco | $1.55M | Flat | +4% | 40 days | Lower than last year |
Santa Clara | $1.9M | +1% | +6% | 38 days | Stable |
Contra Costa | $925K | -3% | +5% | 42 days | - |
Alameda | $1.1M | -1% | +7% | 40 days | -15% |
Key Insights by Price Ranges
Table of Contents:
SF Bay Area Home Price Trends
KPeterson.realty Proprietary Heat Maps
Track how prices are trending month-over-month and year-over-year.
Pricing Month-over-Month (November to December)
Home prices dropped slightly across the region. December is a slower time for real estate, so this is normal.
Example: In San Mateo County, the median home price dipped by 2% compared to November.
Pricing Year-over-Year (December 2023 to December 2024)
Prices in most counties rose modestly, around 5% to 8%, showing that homes are still getting more expensive over time.
For instance, in Santa Clara County, the median sales price climbed 6% compared to December last year.
List-to-Sale Price Ratio
Homes are selling for less above the asking price than earlier in the year. In December, homes were sold for about 101% of the asking price on average (down from 104% in the Spring).
This ratio is also lower compared to December 2023 when it was around 103%.
The charts below are month-over-month (and now year-over-year) heat maps of pricing in the SF Bay Area. They are grouped by county and property type (Condo, Single Family Home, Townhouse). The metrics are Price Per Square Foot, Days On Market, how many sold, and the List To Sales Price Ratio.
Green highlighted cells indicate items keeping prices up in comparison to previous month's metrics.
Red highlighted cells indicate the opposite, i.e downward pressure on sales price which favor buyers more.
Enlarge each county Heat Map by clicking on each of the images.
20-Year vs. 10-Year Appreciation
SF Bay Area Inventory Metrics
Active Listings
The overall number of homes available on the market. An increased inventory combined with a slower selling rate typically benefits buyers, whereas decreased inventory and a faster selling rate usually benefit sellers.
Month-over-Month Inventory Levels
Inventory (homes for sale) dropped by about 20% compared to November. This happens every year as fewer people list homes during the holidays.
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
Inventory levels were down about 10% compared to December 2023, showing that fewer homes are available for buyers overall.
20-Year vs. 10-Year Inventory Levels
Every year we see active and sold inventory go up then down, a predictable cadence. How high or low is dependent on the next metric, Months of Inventory or the rate of change in inventory being sold.
We are above historically low inventory levels; active inventory is now exceeding 2023 levels.
The graphs below show both a 20-year and 10-year time horizon for both single family homes and condos that are on the market (active) versus sold.
Months of Supply
Demand Indicators
% Over Asking vs. DOM (12-Month Look Back)
Days On Market measures how long it takes for homes to sell.
Buyers: Longer DOM gives more room for negotiation.
Sellers: Shorter DOM indicates strong interest.
Homes are taking slightly longer to sell in December compared to November. Across the region, the average time for a home to sell is about 35 to 40 days, which is 5 days longer than last month.
Compared to last year, homes are selling at about the same pace.
How much over asking a home sold for and how fast it was sold, i.e. Days On Market are the next two Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). These show how much demand there is for SF Bay Area single family homes and condos.
Sales price to list price peaked in April 2024 for single family homes and condos while days on market bottomed in May at 16 days.
Pending Sales
Macroeconomics
Mortgage Rates
Month-over-Month Change
Rates rose from around 6.60%-6.70% (Nov 2024) to 6.85% (Dec 2024), showing a modest upward trend.
Driving Factors: The increase can be attributed to rising bond yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep rates higher for longer, given continued economic resilience and inflation concerns.
Year-over-Year Change
Rates increased from 6.61% (Dec 2023) to 6.85% (Dec 2024), indicating a 0.24% increase.
10-Year Treasury
Stock Market (Performance for 2024)
FED (Federal Reserve)
Inflation
Employment
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